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Samut Sakhon FC vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
1 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
6/30/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC29%
×Draw23%
Lampang FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.38
Lampang FC
1.82

Lampang FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 102 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
52%
Samut Sakhon FC or Lampang FC
77%
Draw or Lampang FC
71%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
13%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
75%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
40%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
16%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
84%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
54%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
38%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
29%
level
23%
Lampang FC scores more
48%

Lampang FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Lampang FC

Samut Sakhon FC beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on June 30, 2018.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).