Samut Sakhon FC 2–4 Khon Kaen United

Samut Sakhon FC

FT

2 – 4

Khon Kaen United

9/20/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 7Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC30%

×Draw23%

Khon Kaen United47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut Sakhon FCExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.82

Samut Sakhon FC

1.41

Khon Kaen United

1.82

Khon Kaen United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 35 away

1.21

creates per match

1.40

2.25

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC

1.21

Khon Kaen United

1.40

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC

2.25

Khon Kaen United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw

53%

Samut Sakhon FC or Khon Kaen United

77%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

70%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

13%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

76%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

41%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

17%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

84%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

54%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

39%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

30%

level

23%

Khon Kaen United scores more

47%

Khon Kaen United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khon Kaen United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff