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Samut Sakhon FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
1 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
4/27/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC37%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.53
Kasetsart FC
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 132 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
61%
Samut Sakhon FC or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
63%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
18%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
78%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
45%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
20%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
79%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
46%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
49%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
37%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
39%

Kasetsart FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Kasetsart FC

Samut Sakhon FC and Kasetsart FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).