Samut Sakhon FC 2–3 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Samut Sakhon FC

FT

2 – 3

Ayutthaya FC

2/17/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 2Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC28%

×Draw24%

Ayutthaya FC48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut Sakhon FCExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.75

Samut Sakhon FC

1.29

Ayutthaya FC

1.75

Ayutthaya FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 101 away

1.21

creates per match

1.25

2.25

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC

1.21

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC

2.25

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw

52%

Samut Sakhon FC or Ayutthaya FC

76%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

72%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

12%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

72%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

37%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

14%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

83%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

52%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

37%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

28%

level

24%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

48%

Ayutthaya FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff