Samut Sakhon FC 1–1 Army United: Result & Stats

Samut Sakhon FC

FT

1 – 1

Army United

5/18/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 13Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC29%

×Draw24%

Army United47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut Sakhon FCExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.71

Samut Sakhon FC

1.28

Army United

1.71

Army United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

1.21

creates per match

1.16

2.25

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC

1.21

Army United

1.16

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC

2.25

Army United

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Army United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw

53%

Samut Sakhon FC or Army United

76%

Draw or Army United

71%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

12%

Army United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

72%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

37%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

14%

Army United 1+ goals

82%

Army United 2+ goals

51%

Army United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

38%

Army United (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Army United attack 1.16 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

29%

level

24%

Army United scores more

47%

Army United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Army United

Samut Sakhon FC and Army United drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).

Samut Sakhon FC vs Army United — Thai League 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Army United