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Samut Sakhon FC vs Ang Thong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
3 – 3
Ang Thong FC
Ang Thong FC
9/29/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC38%
×Draw24%
Ang Thong FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.57
Ang Thong FC
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Ang Thong FC
0.93

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Ang Thong FC
1.93

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Ang Thong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
61%
Samut Sakhon FC or Ang Thong FC
76%
Draw or Ang Thong FC
62%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
18%
Ang Thong FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
79%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
46%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
21%
Ang Thong FC 1+ goals
80%
Ang Thong FC 2+ goals
47%
Ang Thong FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
49%
Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Ang Thong FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ang Thong FC attack 0.93 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
38%
level
24%
Ang Thong FC scores more
39%

Ang Thong FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ang Thong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Ang Thong FC

Samut Sakhon FC and Ang Thong FC drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).