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Samut Sakhon FC vs Air Force Central FC — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
2 – 2
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
8/17/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC36%
×Draw24%
Air Force Central FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.54
Air Force Central FC
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Air Force Central FC
1.00

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Air Force Central FC
1.88

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
60%
Samut Sakhon FC or Air Force Central FC
76%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
64%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
17%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
79%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
45%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
20%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
80%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
48%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
47%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
36%
level
24%
Air Force Central FC scores more
40%

Air Force Central FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Samut Sakhon FC 2 – 2 Air Force Central FC

Samut Sakhon FC and Air Force Central FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).