Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Samut Sakhon City vs Uthai Thani — FA Cup 2018

Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
11/1/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundNational Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samut Sakhon City39%
×Draw22%
Uthai Thani39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon City
1.88
Uthai Thani
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon City
3.00
Uthai Thani
2.25

allows per match

Samut Sakhon City
1.50
Uthai Thani
0.75

finishing

Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon City ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon City or draw
61%
Samut Sakhon City or Uthai Thani
78%
Draw or Uthai Thani
61%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
21%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
85%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
56%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
29%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
85%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
56%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
50%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon City attack 3.00 + Uthai Thani defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Uthai Thani attack 2.25 + Samut Sakhon City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samut Sakhon City scores more
39%
level
22%
Uthai Thani scores more
39%

Samut Sakhon City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Samut Sakhon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon City vs Uthai Thani

Samut Sakhon City beat Uthai Thani 2-0 in FA Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus in Samut Sakhon.