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Samut Sakhon City vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — League Cup 2021

Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon Cityadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
11/26/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samut Sakhon City28%
×Draw25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon City
1.14
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.53

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon City
1.78
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.50

allows per match

Samut Sakhon City
1.56
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.50

finishing

Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon City ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon City or draw
54%
Samut Sakhon City or Nakhon Si Thammarat
75%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
72%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
11%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
68%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
32%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
11%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
78%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
45%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
38%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon City at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon City attack 1.78 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.50 + Samut Sakhon City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Samut Sakhon City scores more
28%
level
25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
46%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Samut Sakhon City 1–0 Nakhon Si Thammarat

Samut Sakhon City beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 1-0 in League Cup on November 26, 2025.