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Samut Sakhon City vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — FA Cup 2018

Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon City
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FCadvanced
4/9/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16National Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samut Sakhon City38%
×Draw22%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon City
1.75
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon City
3.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.10

allows per match

Samut Sakhon City
1.50
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0.50

finishing

Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon City ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon City or draw
60%
Samut Sakhon City or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
78%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
62%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
19%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
83%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
52%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
25%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
83%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
54%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
49%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon City attack 3.00 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.10 + Samut Sakhon City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samut Sakhon City scores more
38%
level
22%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
40%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Samut Sakhon City 1 – 4 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Samut Sakhon City 4-1 in FA Cup on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at National Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus in Samut Sakhon.