Samut Sakhon City 4–1 MH Nakhonsi: Result & Stats

Samut Sakhon City

4 – 1

MH Nakhonsi

10/2/2024

League Cup · Play-offsNational Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Samut Sakhon City27%

×Draw19%

MH Nakhonsi53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut Sakhon CityExpected goals in this matchMH Nakhonsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.45

Samut Sakhon City

1.73

MH Nakhonsi

2.45

MH Nakhonsi creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.78

creates per match

3.33

1.56

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Samut Sakhon City

1.78

MH Nakhonsi

3.33

allows per match

Samut Sakhon City

1.56

MH Nakhonsi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

MH Nakhonsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon City ↓

MH Nakhonsi →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon City or draw

47%

Samut Sakhon City or MH Nakhonsi

81%

Draw or MH Nakhonsi

73%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+

13%

MH Nakhonsi wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals

82%

Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals

52%

Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals

25%

MH Nakhonsi 1+ goals

91%

MH Nakhonsi 2+ goals

70%

MH Nakhonsi 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)

34%

MH Nakhonsi (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon City at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

MH Nakhonsi away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon City attack 1.78 + MH Nakhonsi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

MH Nakhonsi attack 3.33 + Samut Sakhon City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Samut Sakhon City scores more

27%

level

19%

MH Nakhonsi scores more

53%

MH Nakhonsi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "MH Nakhonsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon City vs MH Nakhonsi

Samut Sakhon City beat MH Nakhonsi 4-1 in League Cup on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at National Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus in Samut Sakhon.

Samut Sakhon City vs MH Nakhonsi — League Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon City vs MH Nakhonsi