Samut Sakhon City 1–4 BG Pathum United

Samut Sakhon City

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

BG Pathum United

12/6/2023

League Cup · 1st RoundNational Sports University Stadium Samut Sakhon Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Samut Sakhon City23%

×Draw20%

BG Pathum United57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut Sakhon CityExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.25

Samut Sakhon City

1.39

BG Pathum United

2.25

BG Pathum United creates 62% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.78

creates per match

2.93

1.56

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Samut Sakhon City

1.78

BG Pathum United

2.93

allows per match

Samut Sakhon City

1.56

BG Pathum United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon City ↓

BG Pathum United →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon City or draw

43%

Samut Sakhon City or BG Pathum United

80%

Draw or BG Pathum United

77%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+

10%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals

75%

Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals

40%

Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals

16%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

89%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

65%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)

29%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon City at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 2.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon City attack 1.78 + BG Pathum United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

BG Pathum United attack 2.93 + Samut Sakhon City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Samut Sakhon City scores more

23%

level

20%

BG Pathum United scores more

57%

BG Pathum United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff