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Samtse vs Bhutan U19 — Premier League 2023

Samtse
Samtse
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
6/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Samtse Dzongkhag Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Samtse39%
×Draw19%
Bhutan U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtse
2.40
Bhutan U19
2.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

creates per match

Samtse
2.22
Bhutan U19
1.26

allows per match

Samtse
3.67
Bhutan U19
2.57

finishing

Samtse+0.00on par
Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtse ↓

Bhutan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Samtse or draw
59%
Samtse or Bhutan U19
81%
Draw or Bhutan U19
61%

Winning margin

Samtse wins by 2+
23%
Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Samtse 1+ goals
91%
Samtse 2+ goals
69%
Samtse 3+ goals
42%
Bhutan U19 1+ goals
91%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
70%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Samtse (draw refunded)
49%
Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtse at home — creates 2.22, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtse attack 2.22 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.40

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Samtse defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Samtse scores more
39%
level
19%
Bhutan U19 scores more
41%

Bhutan U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bhutan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samtse 2–2 Bhutan U19

Samtse and Bhutan U19 drew 2-2 in Premier League on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Samtse Dzongkhag Ground in Samtse.