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Samtredia vs Tskhinvali — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
4/4/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 5Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze (Samtredia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Samtredia58%
×Draw23%
Tskhinvali19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.77
Tskhinvali
0.91

Samtredia creates 95% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Tskhinvali
0.83

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Tskhinvali
1.83

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Tskhinvali+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Tskhinvali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
81%
Samtredia or Tskhinvali
77%
Draw or Tskhinvali
42%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
33%
Tskhinvali wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
83%
Samtredia 2+ goals
53%
Samtredia 3+ goals
26%
Tskhinvali 1+ goals
60%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
23%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
75%
Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Tskhinvali away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Tskhinvali defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tskhinvali attack 0.83 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Samtredia scores more
58%
level
23%
Tskhinvali scores more
19%

Samtredia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtredia vs Tskhinvali

Samtredia beat Tskhinvali 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze (Samtredia).