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Samtredia vs Saburtalo II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
3/9/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 1Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Samtredia53%
×Draw24%
Saburtalo II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.71
Saburtalo II
1.06

Samtredia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 20 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Saburtalo II
1.15

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Saburtalo II
1.70

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Saburtalo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
76%
Samtredia or Saburtalo II
76%
Draw or Saburtalo II
47%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
29%
Saburtalo II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
82%
Samtredia 2+ goals
51%
Samtredia 3+ goals
24%
Saburtalo II 1+ goals
65%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
29%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
69%
Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Saburtalo II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Saburtalo II attack 1.15 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Samtredia scores more
53%
level
24%
Saburtalo II scores more
24%

Samtredia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtredia vs Saburtalo II

Samtredia and Saburtalo II drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium in Samtredia.