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Samtredia vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
9/11/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 22Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Samtredia51%
×Draw24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.67
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.10

Samtredia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.22

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.64

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
75%
Samtredia or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
76%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
49%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
27%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
81%
Samtredia 2+ goals
50%
Samtredia 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
67%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
30%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
67%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Samtredia scores more
51%
level
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
25%

Samtredia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtredia vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Samtredia beat Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 11, 2025.

The match was played at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium in Samtredia.