Samtredia 1–0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

O. Kobakhidze 90+2' (pen)

8/13/2021

Erovnuli Liga · Round 12Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Samtredia42%

×Draw24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchLokomotivi Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.39

Samtredia

1.59

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.39

Samtredia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 55 away

1.09

creates per match

1.33

1.44

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Samtredia

1.09

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.33

allows per match

Samtredia

1.44

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

67%

Samtredia or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

76%

Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

58%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

21%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

80%

Samtredia 2+ goals

47%

Samtredia 3+ goals

21%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals

75%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals

40%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

56%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.33 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Samtredia scores more

42%

level

24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more

33%

Samtredia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

T. Tsetskhladze

46'

I. Oulad Omar← G. Iakobidze

59'

K. Kakhabrishvili← D. Samurkasovi

67'

O. Kobakhidze← G. Lomtadze

67'

S. Pavišić← T. Tsetskhladze

67'

I. Tchiabrishvili← G. Diasamidze

75'

G. Mchedlishvili

80'

M. Gavashelishvili← B. Dartsmelia

90'

N. Sandokhadze

90+5'

M. Kvirkvia← G. Akhaladze

90+5'

G. Iluridze← G. Arabidze

90+2'

O. KobakhidzePenalty

Samtredia

Lokomotivi

12

16

27

40

5

11

21

▼

Diasamidz

8

▼

Samurkaso

6

▼

Dartsmeli

7

Sikharuli

20

▼

30

2

35

3

▼

Tsetskhla

6

Asatiani

16

▼

33

23

21

11

▼

Arabidze

17

▼

Lomtadze

Manager: G. Tsetsadze

67'▲O. Kobakhidze←▼G. Lomtadze

67'▲S. Pavišić←▼T. Tsetskhladze

90+5'▲M. Kvirkvia←▼G. Akhaladze

90+5'▲G. Iluridze←▼G. Arabidze

Samtredia substitutes

9Kobakhidze26Pavišić7Kvirkvia10Iluridze4Gogiashvili8Mesiachenko13Lomidze20Ioseliani22Robakidze

Manager: G. Tchiabrishvili

46'▲I. Oulad Omar←▼G. Iakobidze

59'▲K. Kakhabrishvili←▼D. Samurkasovi

67'▲I. Tchiabrishvili←▼G. Diasamidze

80'▲M. Gavashelishvili←▼B. Dartsmelia

Lokomotivi Tbilisi substitutes

10Omar19Kakhabrishvili18Tchiabrishvili9Gavashelishvili1Tevdoradze2Mtchedlishvili23Mukbaniani33Buighlishvili35Kveladze