Samtredia 1–3 Gagra: Result & Stats | Erovnuli Liga

Samtredia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Gagra

3/16/2024

Erovnuli Liga · Round 4Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Samtredia40%

×Draw26%

Gagra34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchGagra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

Samtredia

1.35

Gagra

1.23

Samtredia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 84 away

1.09

creates per match

1.02

1.44

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Samtredia

1.09

Gagra

1.02

allows per match

Samtredia

1.44

Gagra

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Gagra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Gagra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

66%

Samtredia or Gagra

74%

Draw or Gagra

60%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

18%

Gagra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

74%

Samtredia 2+ goals

39%

Samtredia 3+ goals

15%

Gagra 1+ goals

71%

Gagra 2+ goals

35%

Gagra 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

54%

Gagra (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Gagra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Gagra defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gagra attack 1.02 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samtredia scores more

40%

level

26%

Gagra scores more

34%

Samtredia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff