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Samsunspor vs Yeni Orduspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Yeni Orduspor
Yeni Orduspor
12/3/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundSamsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Samsunspor63%
×Draw20%
Yeni Orduspor17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
2.17
Yeni Orduspor
1.03

Samsunspor creates 111% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
2.44
Yeni Orduspor
1.40

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.67
Yeni Orduspor
1.90

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Yeni Orduspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
83%
Samsunspor or Yeni Orduspor
80%
Draw or Yeni Orduspor
37%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
40%
Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
89%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
64%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
36%
Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals
64%
Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals
28%
Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
79%
Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 2.44 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.17

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + Samsunspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Samsunspor scores more
63%
level
20%
Yeni Orduspor scores more
17%

Samsunspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Samsunspor 2–2 Yeni Orduspor

Samsunspor and Yeni Orduspor drew 2-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.