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Samsunspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
12/9/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 17Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Samsunspor75%
×Draw16%
Yeni Malatyaspor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
2.54
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.79

Samsunspor creates 222% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 33 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.93
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.89
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
90%
Samsunspor or Yeni Malatyaspor
84%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
25%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
53%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
92%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
72%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
46%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
55%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
19%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
89%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.93 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.54

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Samsunspor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Samsunspor scores more
75%
level
16%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
10%

Samsunspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Samsunspor 1–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

Samsunspor and Yeni Malatyaspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on December 9, 2022.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.