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Samsunspor vs Muş Sport Klübü — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Muş Sport Klübü
Muş Sport Klübü
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundSamsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Samsunspor63%
×Draw19%
Muş Sport Klübü17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
2.29
Muş Sport Klübü
1.12

Samsunspor creates 104% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
2.44
Muş Sport Klübü
1.57

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.67
Muş Sport Klübü
2.14

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Muş Sport Klübü+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Muş Sport Klübü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
83%
Samsunspor or Muş Sport Klübü
81%
Draw or Muş Sport Klübü
37%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
41%
Muş Sport Klübü wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
90%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
66%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
40%
Muş Sport Klübü 1+ goals
67%
Muş Sport Klübü 2+ goals
31%
Muş Sport Klübü 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
78%
Muş Sport Klübü (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Muş Sport Klübü away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 2.44 + Muş Sport Klübü defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Muş Sport Klübü attack 1.57 + Samsunspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Samsunspor scores more
63%
level
19%
Muş Sport Klübü scores more
17%

Samsunspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Samsunspor 3–0 Muş Sport Klübü

Samsunspor beat Muş Sport Klübü 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.