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Samsunspor vs Muğlaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Muğlaspor
Muğlaspor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundSamsun 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Samsunspor48%
×Draw24%
Muğlaspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.72
Muğlaspor
1.25

Samsunspor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
2.44
Muğlaspor
1.83

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.67
Muğlaspor
1.00

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Muğlaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Muğlaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
72%
Samsunspor or Muğlaspor
76%
Draw or Muğlaspor
52%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
26%
Muğlaspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
82%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
51%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
25%
Muğlaspor 1+ goals
71%
Muğlaspor 2+ goals
36%
Muğlaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
63%
Muğlaspor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Muğlaspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 2.44 + Muğlaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Muğlaspor attack 1.83 + Samsunspor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Samsunspor scores more
48%
level
24%
Muğlaspor scores more
28%

Samsunspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Samsunspor 1–3 Muğlaspor

Muğlaspor beat Samsunspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Samsun 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.