Samsunspor 3–0 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Samsunspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Samsunspor72%

×Draw18%

Dynamo Kyiv9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamsunsporExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.60

Samsunspor

2.10

Dynamo Kyiv

0.60

Samsunspor creates 250% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

0.20

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Samsunspor

2.40

Dynamo Kyiv

0.20

allows per match

Samsunspor

1.00

Dynamo Kyiv

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw

91%

Samsunspor or Dynamo Kyiv

82%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

28%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+

47%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals

88%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

62%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

35%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

45%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

12%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

88%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 2.40 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.20 + Samsunspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Samsunspor scores more

72%

level

18%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

9%

Samsunspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff