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Samsunspor vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
5/16/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 37Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Samsunspor47%
×Draw26%
Bodrum FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.50
Bodrum FK
1.08

Samsunspor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.93
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Samsunspor
0.89
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Samsunspor+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
73%
Samsunspor or Bodrum FK
74%
Draw or Bodrum FK
53%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
23%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
78%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
44%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
19%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
66%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
29%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
63%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.93 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Samsunspor defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Samsunspor scores more
47%
level
26%
Bodrum FK scores more
27%

Samsunspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Samsunspor 0–1 Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat Samsunspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on May 16, 2023.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.