Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tállya vs Tiszaújváros — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
CANC
22:00
Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
6/29/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 20Károlyi Mihály utca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tállya33%
×Draw24%
Tiszaújváros43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
1.39
Tiszaújváros
1.61

Tiszaújváros creates 16% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
Tiszaújváros
1.48

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
Tiszaújváros
1.74

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Tiszaújváros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
57%
Tállya or Tiszaújváros
76%
Draw or Tiszaújváros
67%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
15%
Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
75%
Tállya 2+ goals
40%
Tállya 3+ goals
16%
Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
80%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
48%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
44%
Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Tiszaújváros away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tiszaújváros attack 1.48 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tállya scores more
33%
level
24%
Tiszaújváros scores more
43%

Tiszaújváros at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Tállya vs Tiszaújváros — Match Preview

Tállya face Tiszaújváros on June 29, 2020 in this NB III - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tállya host Tiszaújváros at Károlyi Mihály utca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.