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Veszprém vs Sárvári — NB III - Southwest 2019

Veszprém
Veszprém
FT
1 – 1
Sárvári
Sárvári
8/4/2019NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 1Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Veszprém54%
×Draw26%
Sárvári20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veszprém
1.50
Sárvári
0.80

Veszprém creates 88% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 9 away

creates per match

Veszprém
1.90
Sárvári
1.00

allows per match

Veszprém
0.61
Sárvári
1.11

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par
Sárvári+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Sárvári →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw
80%
Veszprém or Sárvári
74%
Draw or Sárvári
46%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+
28%
Sárvári wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals
78%
Veszprém 2+ goals
44%
Veszprém 3+ goals
19%
Sárvári 1+ goals
55%
Sárvári 2+ goals
19%
Sárvári 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)
73%
Sárvári (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.61 · 67 matches

Sárvári away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.90 + Sárvári defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sárvári attack 1.00 + Veszprém defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Veszprém scores more
54%
level
26%
Sárvári scores more
20%

Veszprém at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

NB III - Southwest: Veszprém 1–1 Sárvári

Veszprém and Sárvári drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Veszprém.