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Šampion Celje vs Korotan Prevalje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
Preview
14:00
Korotan Prevalje
Korotan Prevalje
10/28/20263. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 11
54%
Šampion Celje
model favours
54%21%25%
2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Šampion Celje54%
×Draw21%
Korotan Prevalje25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šampion Celje
2.10
Korotan Prevalje
1.39

Šampion Celje creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Šampion Celje
2.57
Korotan Prevalje
1.21

allows per match

Šampion Celje
1.57
Korotan Prevalje
1.63

finishing

Šampion Celje+0.00on par
Korotan Prevalje+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šampion Celje ↓

Korotan Prevalje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Šampion Celje or draw
75%
Šampion Celje or Korotan Prevalje
79%
Draw or Korotan Prevalje
46%

Winning margin

Šampion Celje wins by 2+
32%
Korotan Prevalje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šampion Celje 1+ goals
88%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
62%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
35%
Korotan Prevalje 1+ goals
75%
Korotan Prevalje 2+ goals
40%
Korotan Prevalje 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
68%
Korotan Prevalje (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šampion Celje at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Korotan Prevalje away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šampion Celje attack 2.57 + Korotan Prevalje defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.10

Korotan Prevalje attack 1.21 + Šampion Celje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Šampion Celje scores more
54%
level
21%
Korotan Prevalje scores more
25%

Šampion Celje at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Šampion Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Celje
LWLDW
Prevalje
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Šampion Celje host Korotan Prevalje

October 28, 2026: Šampion Celje take on Korotan Prevalje in 3. SNL - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.