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Korotan Prevalje vs Šampion Celje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Korotan Prevalje
Korotan Prevalje
FT
2 – 1
Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
5/29/20213. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - Relegation Round - 4Športni park Ugasle peči

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Korotan Prevalje52%
×Draw22%
Šampion Celje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korotan Prevalje
2.04
Šampion Celje
1.39

Korotan Prevalje creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Korotan Prevalje
1.76
Šampion Celje
1.44

allows per match

Korotan Prevalje
1.33
Šampion Celje
2.33

finishing

Korotan Prevalje+0.00on par
Šampion Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korotan Prevalje ↓

Šampion Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Korotan Prevalje or draw
74%
Korotan Prevalje or Šampion Celje
78%
Draw or Šampion Celje
48%

Winning margin

Korotan Prevalje wins by 2+
31%
Šampion Celje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korotan Prevalje 1+ goals
87%
Korotan Prevalje 2+ goals
60%
Korotan Prevalje 3+ goals
33%
Šampion Celje 1+ goals
75%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
40%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Korotan Prevalje (draw refunded)
67%
Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korotan Prevalje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Šampion Celje away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korotan Prevalje attack 1.76 + Šampion Celje defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Šampion Celje attack 1.44 + Korotan Prevalje defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Korotan Prevalje scores more
52%
level
22%
Šampion Celje scores more
26%

Korotan Prevalje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korotan Prevalje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korotan Prevalje vs Šampion Celje

Korotan Prevalje beat Šampion Celje 2-1 in 3. SNL - East on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Športni park Ugasle peči in Prevalje.