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Sampdoria vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Venezia
Venezia
3/14/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 30Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sampdoria25%
×Draw26%
Venezia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
1.00
Venezia
1.51

Venezia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.13
Venezia
2.01

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.02
Venezia
0.87

finishing

Sampdoria+0.09on par
Venezia-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
51%
Sampdoria or Venezia
74%
Draw or Venezia
75%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
9%
Venezia wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
63%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
26%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
8%
Venezia 1+ goals
78%
Venezia 2+ goals
44%
Venezia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
34%
Venezia (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Venezia away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.87 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.13 + Venezia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Venezia attack 2.01 + Sampdoria defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sampdoria scores more
25%
level
26%
Venezia scores more
49%

Venezia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
M. SvobodaVeneziaVenezia · D
7.9

Match Events

46'
A. Ferrari← D. Hadzikadunic
63'
L. Lauberbach← A. Adorante
63'
A. Casas← M. Dagasso
70'
Tjaš Begić
80'
Francesco Conti
81'
M. Ricci← F. Conti
86'
E. Soleri← M. Brunori
86'
S. Pafundi← T. Begic

Possession

31%Sampdoria

Shots

9Sampdoria

Pass accuracy

42%Sampdoria

Statistics

SampdoriaVenezia
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots15
0.41Expected Goals (xG)1.75
7Corners6
11Fouls23
Shots
9Total Shots15
1On Target5
4Off Target7
4Blocked3
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box6
Passing
31%Possession69%
212Total Passes506
131Accurate Passes426
62%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
0.48Goals Prevented0.48
Discipline
11Fouls23
2Yellow Cards0

Serie B: Sampdoria 0–0 Venezia

Sampdoria and Venezia drew 0-0 in Serie B on March 14, 2026.

Venezia controlled possession (69%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.