Sampdoria 1–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

M. Ricci 90'

1/31/2026

Serie B · Round 22Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sampdoria41%

×Draw25%

Spezia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.36

Sampdoria

1.51

Spezia

1.36

Sampdoria creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.71

1.02

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.13

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.02

Spezia

1.90

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Sampdoria+0.09on par

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

66%

Sampdoria or Spezia

75%

Draw or Spezia

59%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

20%

Spezia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

78%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

44%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

19%

Spezia 1+ goals

74%

Spezia 2+ goals

39%

Spezia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

54%

Spezia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.13 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

Spezia attack 1.71 + Sampdoria defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sampdoria scores more

41%

level

25%

Spezia scores more

34%

Sampdoria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Di Pardo

Sampdoria · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

34'

35'

38'

47'

50'

57'

58'

67'

67'

77'

C. Comotto← M. Valoti

77'

V. Vlahovic← G. Di Serio

85'

Matteo Palma

85'

Vanja Vlahović

90+1'

Matteo Ricci

90+2'

A. Riccio← L. Cherubini

90+2'

D. Verde← F. Cassata

90'

M. Ricci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaSpezia

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots11

0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.49

6Corners11

14Fouls23

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target4

3Blocked4

5Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

392Total Passes301

320Accurate Passes221

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls23

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

6Offsides1

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Spezia

Sampdoria beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie B on January 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Ricci (90').

Sampdoria controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa.

Sampdoria vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Spezia