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Sampdoria vs Spezia — Serie A 2018

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
4/22/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 31Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sampdoria48%
×Draw24%
Spezia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
1.65
Spezia
1.19

Sampdoria creates 39% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.33
Spezia
1.00

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.39
Spezia
1.96

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
72%
Sampdoria or Spezia
76%
Draw or Spezia
52%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
25%
Spezia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
81%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
49%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
23%
Spezia 1+ goals
70%
Spezia 2+ goals
33%
Spezia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
64%
Spezia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.65

Spezia attack 1.00 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sampdoria scores more
48%
level
24%
Spezia scores more
28%

Sampdoria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Spezia

Sampdoria and Spezia drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.