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Sampdoria vs Monza — Serie A 2018

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Monza
Monza
10/2/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 8Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sampdoria44%
×Draw25%
Monza31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
1.50
Monza
1.21

Sampdoria creates 24% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.33
Monza
1.02

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.39
Monza
1.67

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par
Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
69%
Sampdoria or Monza
75%
Draw or Monza
56%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
22%
Monza wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
78%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
44%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
19%
Monza 1+ goals
70%
Monza 2+ goals
34%
Monza 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
59%
Monza (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

Monza away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + Monza defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Monza attack 1.02 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sampdoria scores more
44%
level
25%
Monza scores more
31%

Sampdoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Sampdoria 0–3 Monza

Monza beat Sampdoria 3-0 in Serie A on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.