Sampdoria 0–0 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sampdoria

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juventus

8/22/2022

Serie A · Round 2Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sampdoria31%

×Draw26%

Juventus43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.46

Sampdoria

1.21

Juventus

1.46

Juventus creates 21% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 139 away

1.33

creates per match

1.53

1.39

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.33

Juventus

1.53

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.39

Juventus

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

57%

Sampdoria or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

69%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

13%

Juventus wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

70%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

34%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

12%

Juventus 1+ goals

77%

Juventus 2+ goals

43%

Juventus 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

42%

Juventus (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + Juventus defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Juventus attack 1.53 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sampdoria scores more

31%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

43%

Juventus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff