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Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
11/27/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sampdoria43%
×Draw26%
Hellas Verona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
1.45
Hellas Verona
1.21

Sampdoria creates 20% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.33
Hellas Verona
1.02

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.39
Hellas Verona
1.57

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
68%
Sampdoria or Hellas Verona
74%
Draw or Hellas Verona
57%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
21%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
77%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
42%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
18%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
70%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
34%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
57%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sampdoria scores more
43%
level
26%
Hellas Verona scores more
32%

Sampdoria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Sampdoria 3–1 Hellas Verona

Sampdoria beat Hellas Verona 3-1 in Serie A on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.