Sampdoria 0–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sampdoria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Frosinone

2/10/2019

Serie A · Round 23Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sampdoria47%

×Draw25%

Frosinone27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.11

Sampdoria

1.55

Frosinone

1.11

Sampdoria creates 40% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 31 away

1.33

creates per match

0.84

1.39

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.33

Frosinone

0.84

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.39

Frosinone

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

73%

Sampdoria or Frosinone

75%

Draw or Frosinone

53%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

24%

Frosinone wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

79%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

46%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

20%

Frosinone 1+ goals

67%

Frosinone 2+ goals

30%

Frosinone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

64%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

Frosinone away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + Frosinone defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Frosinone attack 0.84 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sampdoria scores more

47%

level

25%

Frosinone scores more

27%

Sampdoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff