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Sampdoria vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Crotone
Crotone
12/19/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sampdoria57%
×Draw21%
Crotone22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
2.16
Crotone
1.28

Sampdoria creates 69% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.32
Crotone
1.16

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.40
Crotone
3.00

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
78%
Sampdoria or Crotone
79%
Draw or Crotone
43%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
35%
Crotone wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
88%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
63%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
36%
Crotone 1+ goals
72%
Crotone 2+ goals
37%
Crotone 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
72%
Crotone (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.40 · 96 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.32 + Crotone defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Crotone attack 1.16 + Sampdoria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sampdoria scores more
57%
level
21%
Crotone scores more
22%

Sampdoria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Crotone

Sampdoria beat Crotone 3-1 in Serie A on December 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.