Sampdoria 1–2 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sampdoria

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bologna

2/18/2023

Serie A · Round 23Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sampdoria42%

×Draw25%

Bologna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Sampdoria

1.48

Bologna

1.29

Sampdoria creates 15% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 133 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

1.39

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.33

Bologna

1.20

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.39

Bologna

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Bologna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

67%

Sampdoria or Bologna

75%

Draw or Bologna

58%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

20%

Bologna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

77%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

43%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

19%

Bologna 1+ goals

72%

Bologna 2+ goals

37%

Bologna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

56%

Bologna (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.63 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + Bologna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bologna attack 1.20 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sampdoria scores more

42%

level

25%

Bologna scores more

33%

Sampdoria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff