Sampdoria 0–2 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sampdoria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bari

N. Bellomo 90'

G. Moncini 26'

2/27/2026

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sampdoria52%

×Draw26%

Bari22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SampdoriaExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.87

Sampdoria

1.50

Bari

0.87

Sampdoria creates 72% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

0.72

1.02

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sampdoria

1.13

Bari

0.72

allows per match

Sampdoria

1.02

Bari

1.86

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Sampdoria+0.09on par

Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw

78%

Sampdoria or Bari

74%

Draw or Bari

48%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+

27%

Bari wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals

78%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

44%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

19%

Bari 1+ goals

58%

Bari 2+ goals

22%

Bari 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

70%

Bari (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.13 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bari attack 0.72 + Sampdoria defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sampdoria scores more

52%

level

26%

Bari scores more

22%

Sampdoria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Cherubini

Sampdoria · F

8.0

Match Events

11'

Federico Artioli

26'

G. Moncini↳ T. Esteves

40'

Matteo Palma

45+3'

Matteo Brunori

45'

Liam Henderson

60'

S. Giordano← M. Palma

60'

S. Pafundi← L. Cherubini

62'

F. Conti← L. Henderson

62'

D. Traore← F. Artioli

63'

Daouda Traore

71'

G. De Pieri← T. Esteves

71'

M. Cuni← G. Moncini

74'

Salvatore Esposito

75'

M. Ricci← S. Esposito

75'

E. Soleri← M. Cicconi

83'

N. Bellomo← E. Rao

83'

M. Braunoder← G. Maggiore

84'

Marvin Çuni

90+1'

Nicola Bellomo

90'

N. Bellomo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SampdoriaBari

Overview

73%Possession27%

19Total Shots13

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.66

9Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

19Total Shots13

4On Target7

8Off Target3

7Blocked3

7Inside Box7

12Outside Box6

Passing

73%Possession27%

579Total Passes219

494Accurate Passes142

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.34Goals Prevented0.34

Discipline

10Fouls20

4Yellow Cards4

5Offsides1