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Sampdoria vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ascoli
Ascoli
3/11/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sampdoria42%
×Draw28%
Ascoli31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
1.29
Ascoli
1.06

Sampdoria creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 114 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.07
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.03
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
69%
Sampdoria or Ascoli
72%
Draw or Ascoli
58%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
19%
Ascoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
72%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
37%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
14%
Ascoli 1+ goals
65%
Ascoli 2+ goals
29%
Ascoli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
58%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.07 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Sampdoria defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sampdoria scores more
42%
level
28%
Ascoli scores more
31%

Sampdoria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sampdoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampdoria vs Ascoli

Sampdoria beat Ascoli 2-1 in Serie B on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.