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Sampdoria vs AS Roma — Serie A 2018

Sampdoria
Sampdoria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
4/3/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 31Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sampdoria35%
×Draw25%
AS Roma39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria
1.35
AS Roma
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sampdoria
1.33
AS Roma
1.47

allows per match

Sampdoria
1.39
AS Roma
1.37

finishing

Sampdoria+0.00on par
AS Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sampdoria or draw
61%
Sampdoria or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
65%

Winning margin

Sampdoria wins by 2+
16%
AS Roma wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sampdoria 1+ goals
74%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
39%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
15%
AS Roma 1+ goals
76%
AS Roma 2+ goals
42%
AS Roma 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria (draw refunded)
48%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 95 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria attack 1.33 + AS Roma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

AS Roma attack 1.47 + Sampdoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sampdoria scores more
35%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
39%

AS Roma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Sampdoria 0–1 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Sampdoria 1-0 in Serie A on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.