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Sampdoria U20 vs Sassuolo U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sampdoria U20
Sampdoria U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sassuolo U20
Sassuolo U20
5/16/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 38Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sampdoria U2034%
×Draw23%
Sassuolo U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria U20
1.48
Sassuolo U20
1.70

Sassuolo U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sampdoria U20
1.42
Sassuolo U20
1.45

allows per match

Sampdoria U20
1.95
Sassuolo U20
1.53

finishing

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par
Sassuolo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U20 ↓

Sassuolo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sampdoria U20 or draw
57%
Sampdoria U20 or Sassuolo U20
77%
Draw or Sassuolo U20
66%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+
16%
Sassuolo U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals
77%
Sampdoria U20 2+ goals
43%
Sampdoria U20 3+ goals
19%
Sassuolo U20 1+ goals
82%
Sassuolo U20 2+ goals
51%
Sassuolo U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Sassuolo U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Sassuolo U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U20 attack 1.42 + Sassuolo U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sassuolo U20 attack 1.45 + Sampdoria U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sampdoria U20 scores more
34%
level
23%
Sassuolo U20 scores more
43%

Sassuolo U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sassuolo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampdoria U20 vs Sassuolo U20

Sampdoria U20 beat Sassuolo U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili in Bogliasco.