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Sampdoria U20 vs Milan U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sampdoria U20
Sampdoria U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Milan U20
Milan U20
12/7/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 14Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sampdoria U2032%
×Draw24%
Milan U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria U20
1.40
Milan U20
1.67

Milan U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sampdoria U20
1.42
Milan U20
1.38

allows per match

Sampdoria U20
1.95
Milan U20
1.38

finishing

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par
Milan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U20 ↓

Milan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sampdoria U20 or draw
56%
Sampdoria U20 or Milan U20
76%
Draw or Milan U20
68%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+
15%
Milan U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals
75%
Sampdoria U20 2+ goals
41%
Sampdoria U20 3+ goals
17%
Milan U20 1+ goals
81%
Milan U20 2+ goals
50%
Milan U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)
42%
Milan U20 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Milan U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U20 attack 1.42 + Milan U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Milan U20 attack 1.38 + Sampdoria U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sampdoria U20 scores more
32%
level
24%
Milan U20 scores more
44%

Milan U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Sampdoria U20 2–3 Milan U20

Milan U20 beat Sampdoria U20 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili in Bogliasco.