Sampdoria U20 3–1 Lecce U20: Result & Stats

Sampdoria U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lecce U20

12/22/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 17Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sampdoria U2035%

×Draw23%

Lecce U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampdoria U20Expected goals in this matchLecce U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.71

Sampdoria U20

1.56

Lecce U20

1.71

Lecce U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.42

creates per match

1.47

1.95

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sampdoria U20

1.42

Lecce U20

1.47

allows per match

Sampdoria U20

1.95

Lecce U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par

Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sampdoria U20 or draw

58%

Sampdoria U20 or Lecce U20

77%

Draw or Lecce U20

65%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+

17%

Lecce U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals

79%

Sampdoria U20 2+ goals

46%

Sampdoria U20 3+ goals

21%

Lecce U20 1+ goals

82%

Lecce U20 2+ goals

51%

Lecce U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U20 attack 1.42 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Sampdoria U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sampdoria U20 scores more

35%

level

23%

Lecce U20 scores more

42%

Lecce U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lecce U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff