Sampdoria U20 1–1 Hellas Verona U20: Result & Stats

Sampdoria U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hellas Verona U20

S. Leonardi 90+1' (pen)

D. De Battisti 60'

1/26/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sampdoria U2033%

×Draw24%

Hellas Verona U2043%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampdoria U20Expected goals in this matchHellas Verona U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.69

Sampdoria U20

1.46

Hellas Verona U20

1.69

Hellas Verona U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.42

creates per match

1.42

1.95

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sampdoria U20

1.42

Hellas Verona U20

1.42

allows per match

Sampdoria U20

1.95

Hellas Verona U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par

Hellas Verona U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U20 ↓

Hellas Verona U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sampdoria U20 or draw

57%

Sampdoria U20 or Hellas Verona U20

76%

Draw or Hellas Verona U20

67%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+

15%

Hellas Verona U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals

77%

Sampdoria U20 2+ goals

43%

Sampdoria U20 3+ goals

18%

Hellas Verona U20 1+ goals

82%

Hellas Verona U20 2+ goals

50%

Hellas Verona U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Hellas Verona U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Hellas Verona U20 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U20 attack 1.42 + Hellas Verona U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hellas Verona U20 attack 1.42 + Sampdoria U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sampdoria U20 scores more

33%

level

24%

Hellas Verona U20 scores more

43%

Hellas Verona U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hellas Verona U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

60'

Issa Boiro← S. Rossello

60'

D. De Battisti

65'

M. Bačić← G. Patrignani

78'

M. Gioannini← A. Papasergio

78'

L. Paratici← Thiago

78'

K. Stella← R. Agbonifo

80'

84'

J. Peci← A. Pavanati

85'

M. Philippe← D. De Battisti

90+2'

A. Popović← L. Monticelli

90+1'

S. LeonardiPenalty

Sampdoria

Hellas

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Lupi

60'▲Issa Boiro←▼S. Rossello

65'▲M. Bačić←▼G. Patrignani

78'▲M. Gioannini←▼A. Papasergio

78'▲L. Paratici←▼Thiago

Sampdoria U20 substitutes

BoiroBačićGioanniniParatici

Manager: P. Sammarco

78'▲K. Stella←▼R. Agbonifo

84'▲J. Peci←▼A. Pavanati

85'▲M. Philippe←▼D. De Battisti

90+2'▲A. Popović←▼L. Monticelli

Hellas Verona U20 substitutes

StellaPeciPhilippePopović