Sampdoria U19 2–2 Venezia U19: Result & Stats

Sampdoria U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Venezia U19

9/13/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sampdoria U1943%

×Draw22%

Venezia U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampdoria U19Expected goals in this matchVenezia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.69

Sampdoria U19

1.88

Venezia U19

1.69

Sampdoria U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

2.07

creates per match

1.58

1.80

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sampdoria U19

2.07

Venezia U19

1.58

allows per match

Sampdoria U19

1.80

Venezia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Venezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U19 ↓

Venezia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sampdoria U19 or draw

65%

Sampdoria U19 or Venezia U19

78%

Draw or Venezia U19

57%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+

23%

Venezia U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals

85%

Sampdoria U19 2+ goals

56%

Sampdoria U19 3+ goals

29%

Venezia U19 1+ goals

82%

Venezia U19 2+ goals

50%

Venezia U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Venezia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U19 attack 2.07 + Venezia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Venezia U19 attack 1.58 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sampdoria U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Venezia U19 scores more

35%

Sampdoria U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sampdoria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff