Sampdoria U19 2–3 Lecco U19: Result & Stats

Sampdoria U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Lecco U19

12/6/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 11Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sampdoria U1939%

×Draw22%

Lecco U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampdoria U19Expected goals in this matchLecco U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.86

Sampdoria U19

1.87

Lecco U19

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.07

creates per match

1.93

1.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sampdoria U19

2.07

Lecco U19

1.93

allows per match

Sampdoria U19

1.80

Lecco U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Lecco U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U19 ↓

Lecco U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sampdoria U19 or draw

61%

Sampdoria U19 or Lecco U19

78%

Draw or Lecco U19

61%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+

21%

Lecco U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals

85%

Sampdoria U19 2+ goals

56%

Sampdoria U19 3+ goals

29%

Lecco U19 1+ goals

84%

Lecco U19 2+ goals

55%

Lecco U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Lecco U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Lecco U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U19 attack 2.07 + Lecco U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lecco U19 attack 1.93 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sampdoria U19 scores more

39%

level

22%

Lecco U19 scores more

39%

Sampdoria U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sampdoria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff