Sampdoria U19 2–1 Internazionale U19

Sampdoria U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Internazionale U19

1/20/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 15Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sampdoria U1938%

×Draw25%

Internazionale U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampdoria U19Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.42

Sampdoria U19

1.44

Internazionale U19

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

1.76

creates per match

1.56

1.27

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sampdoria U19

1.76

Internazionale U19

1.56

allows per match

Sampdoria U19

1.27

Internazionale U19

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sampdoria U19 or draw

63%

Sampdoria U19 or Internazionale U19

75%

Draw or Internazionale U19

62%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+

18%

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals

76%

Sampdoria U19 2+ goals

42%

Sampdoria U19 3+ goals

18%

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

76%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

41%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.76 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Internazionale U19 attack 1.56 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sampdoria U19 scores more

38%

level

25%

Internazionale U19 scores more

37%

Sampdoria U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sampdoria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff