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Sampdoria U19 vs Genoa U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sampdoria U19
Sampdoria U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa U19
Genoa U19
4/2/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 26Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sampdoria U1947%
×Draw24%
Genoa U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sampdoria U19
1.68
Genoa U19
1.27

Sampdoria U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sampdoria U19
1.76
Genoa U19
1.26

allows per match

Sampdoria U19
1.27
Genoa U19
1.60

finishing

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par
Genoa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U19 ↓

Genoa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sampdoria U19 or draw
71%
Sampdoria U19 or Genoa U19
76%
Draw or Genoa U19
53%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+
25%
Genoa U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals
81%
Sampdoria U19 2+ goals
50%
Sampdoria U19 3+ goals
24%
Genoa U19 1+ goals
72%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
36%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Genoa U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.76 + Genoa U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Genoa U19 attack 1.26 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sampdoria U19 scores more
47%
level
24%
Genoa U19 scores more
29%

Sampdoria U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sampdoria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sampdoria U19 vs Genoa U19

Genoa U19 beat Sampdoria U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili in Bogliasco.