Sampdoria U19 4–2 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Sampdoria U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cesena U19

S. Lukisa 80'

S. Miettinen 61'

M. Ivanović 57'

L. Malagrida 5'

D. Suliani 44'

A. Carlini 11'

1/7/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 13Campo Sportivo Tre Campanili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sampdoria U1966%

×Draw18%

Cesena U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sampdoria U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.17

Sampdoria U19

2.50

Cesena U19

1.17

Sampdoria U19 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

1.76

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Sampdoria U19

1.76

Cesena U19

1.06

allows per match

Sampdoria U19

1.27

Cesena U19

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sampdoria U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sampdoria U19 or draw

84%

Sampdoria U19 or Cesena U19

82%

Draw or Cesena U19

34%

Winning margin

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+

44%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals

92%

Sampdoria U19 2+ goals

71%

Sampdoria U19 3+ goals

45%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

69%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

33%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sampdoria U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.76 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.50

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sampdoria U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Cesena U19 scores more

16%

Sampdoria U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sampdoria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

11'

28'

43'

44'

54'

S. Lukisa← S. Pozzato

57'

M. Ivanović

61'

S. Miettinen

64'

N. Amadori← A. Spatari

72'

C. Ferrara← A. Gessaroli

72'

F. Guidi← G. Manenti

80'

S. Lukisa

81'

L. Straccio← L. Malagrida

81'

S. Leonardi← M. Ivanović

81'

M. Pellizzaro← L. Villa

86'

F. Savio← F. Migliardi

90+1'

R. Campedelli← A. Carlini

90+1'

G. Castorri← G. Ghinelli

Sampdoria

Cesena

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Malagrida

▼

Pozzato

⚽

▼

Ivanović

Manager: F. Tufano

54'▲S. Lukisa←▼S. Pozzato

81'▲L. Straccio←▼L. Malagrida

81'▲S. Leonardi←▼M. Ivanović

81'▲M. Pellizzaro←▼L. Villa

86'▲F. Savio←▼F. Migliardi

Sampdoria U19 substitutes

LukisaStraccioLeonardiPellizzaroSavio

Manager: G. Ceccarelli

64'▲N. Amadori←▼A. Spatari

72'▲C. Ferrara←▼A. Gessaroli

72'▲F. Guidi←▼G. Manenti

90+1'▲R. Campedelli←▼A. Carlini

90+1'▲G. Castorri←▼G. Ghinelli

Cesena U19 substitutes

AmadoriFerraraGuidiCampedelliCastorri