Sampaio Correa vs Vila Nova — Serie B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 88+ matches
Sampaio Correa47%
Vila Nova25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sampaio Correa creates 47% more chances
Season form · 88 home / 122 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sampaio Correa ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sampaio Correa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches
Vila Nova away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.28 · 122 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sampaio Correa attack 1.41 + Vila Nova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34
Vila Nova attack 0.90 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Sampaio Correa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Sampaio Correa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Criciuma
Operario-PR
Botafogo SP
Goias
Avai
Juventude
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
Fortaleza ECVila Nova
Londrina
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
Ceara
Ponte PretaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sampaio Correa host Vila Nova on Wednesday, 20 September 2023 at 00:30. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Serie B: Sampaio Correa 2–1 Vila Nova
Sampaio Correa beat Vila Nova 2-1 in Serie B on September 20, 2023.
Goals: Igor Henrique (11'), Ytalo (39'), Neto Paraíba (69').
Sampaio Correa controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.